Features - Enterprise Data Insights:

DELL, HP, IBM: WHO'S WINNING?

In recent years, the U.S. computer hardware sector has become a battlefield with industry titans -- the relentless Dell, the venerable IBM, a reinforced HP -- fighting for market share. The 2004 Techtel Demand Situation Report indicates that, although the war is far from over, Dell now has a commanding lead in the U.S. professional PC market and continues to gain momentum in other categories at HP's expense.

HP Troubles More Widespread Than First Thought

A two-year trend shows erosion in HP's core hardware strengths (PCs, Notebooks, Servers and Storage) relative to Dell. The bright spot is HP's growing strength in its IT Outsourcing. The issue is whether HP will be able to continue to build the IT Outsourcing, rebuild its server and storage strength and hold onto its printer share all at once. "That's a tall order," said Michael Kelly, Techtel CEO. "We were surprised at the scope of HP's problems as the study results became known."

Over the past two years Dell has gained 20 percent in overall Demand Strength, while IBM has gained 9 percent and HP (Compaq) has lost 16 percent. Techtel measures Demand Strength by a company's ability to find and attract prospects who then consider buying from them. Demand Strength is a crucial metric and reliable harbinger for companies' revenues and subsequent stock performance.

Groundbreaking Research

Techtel's Demand Situation Report measures the underlying demand for specific products and technologies through the eyes of IT professionals, rather than from estimates of vendor shipments and vendor revenues. The latter are actually supply measures. "Supply measures are subject to constant fluctuations as supply chases demand and are much more likely to mislead on estimates of current and future demand than true demand measures," said Kelly.

The War Proliferates: Low-End And Mid-Range Servers, Communications

Techtel findings also indicate that the low-end server market is a closer race for IBM, HP and Dell than in the PC market. However, if past PC market achievements are a sign of "lessons learned," both IBM and HP will need to change tactics to remain competitive with Dell.

"As business and government organizations accelerate the adoption of emerging technologies (including mobile and enterprise communication infrastructure), Dell is poised to capture an increasing share of that demand," said vice president of Techtel, Bill Schaub. "And if Dell's command of the PC market (and now server market) is a future predictor, then HP's command in the printer area and Cisco's command in communications gear are also facing serious competition from Dell, according to these findings."

The Printer Wars: Present And Future

Techtel's research indicates that HP's remaining bastions in the enterprise market will most certainly face intense competition from Dell in the coming years. Although HP currently holds 62 percent of the demand strength for the U.S. professional printer market, Dell's venture into the category, combined with its progress garnering buyer attraction, generating positive opinion, increasing purchase consideration, closing sales on this consideration and building customer loyalty make the company a formidable long-term player.